Bias in the Forward Rate as a Predictor of the Future Spot Exchange Rate

"The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies," with Jumana Poonawala, Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, no.3, April 2010, 585-598.   With appendices: HKS RWP09-023.   NBER WP No. 12496. 

"Carried Away: Everything You Wanted to Know About the Carry Trade,"  the Milken Institute Review, 1st Quarter, 2008 . Revised from: “Getting Carried Away:  How the Carry Trade and Its Potential Unwinding Can Explain Movements in International Financial Markets,” with footnotes and references, Nov. 2007.

"Tests of Rational Expectations in the Forward Exchange Market," Southern Economic Journal 46, no. 4, April 198, pp. 1083-1101.

/////////////