# Jeffrey Frankel ## expand\_more ![JF photo in Riga](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/styles/hwp_1_1__960x960_scale/public/frankel/files/jf_rigalecture.jpg?itok=Q-svxl4x) **Jeffrey Frankel** is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University's Kennedy School. He is a Research Associate at the [National Bureau of Economic Research](http://www.nber.org/). He served at the US President's Council of Economic Advisers in 1983-84 and 1996-99. As CEA Member in the Clinton Administration, Frankel's responsibilities included international economics, macroeconomics, and the environment. Before coming to Harvard in 1999, he was Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. Born in San Francisco, he graduated from Swarthmore College and received his economics PhD from MIT. He has had visiting appointments at the Federal Reserve, IMF, and Peterson Institute for International Economics. His research interests include commodities, crises, currencies, fiscal policy, international finance, monetary policy, regional blocs, and international environmental issues. He has been [ranked](https://research.com/u/jeffrey-a-frankel) among 30 most-cited economists. He writes a [syndicated](https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/jeffrey-frankel) monthlly commentar*y* and a [blog](http://www.jeffrey-frankel.com/). He also co-directs annually the [NBER ISoM](/international-seminar-macroeconomics-isom) and [Harvard](http://conferences.wcfia.harvard.edu/peif) [PEIF](https://conferences.wcfia.harvard.edu/peif/conferences) conferences. Full [CV](/file_url/1418); [pdf](/file_url/1419). [*Project Syndicate*](https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/jeffrey-frankel)*;* [blog](http://www.jeffrey-frankel.com/). I've left [Twitter](https://twitter.com/JFrankelEcon) / [X](https://x.com/search?q=@JeffreyFranke10), am now at [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/jefffrankel.bsky.social/post/3lcsssebya424). ## Recent publications Download 12 citations download- [BibTeX](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=12&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_nbertopics%5D&&&format=bibtex) - [EndNote X3 XML](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=12&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_nbertopics%5D&&&format=endnote8) - [EndNote 7 XML](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=12&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_nbertopics%5D&&&format=endnote7) - [Endnote tagged](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=12&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_nbertopics%5D&&&format=tagged) - [Marc](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=12&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_nbertopics%5D&&&format=marc) - [PubMedId](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=12&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_nbertopics%5D&&&format=pubmed_id) - [RIS](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=12&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_nbertopics%5D&&&format=ris) ### Working Paper Frankel J, Kotti R. [The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting: An Econometric Analysis](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/virus-vaccination-and-voting). Frankel J, Kotti R. [The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting: An Econometric Analysis](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/virus-vaccination-and-voting). - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://www.nber.org/papers/w29186) - [ picture\_as\_pdfvvv\_july25.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/vvv_july25.pdf) - [ picture\_as\_pdfvvv\_aug12updated.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/vvv_aug12updated.pdf) Across US counties, vaccination rates have a statistically significant downward effect on the Covid-19 death rate, as of August 7. Controlling for poverty rates, age, and temperature lowers the magnitude of the estimate a little. Using the Biden-Trump... - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://www.nber.org/papers/w29186) - [ picture\_as\_pdfvvv\_july25.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/vvv_july25.pdf) - [ picture\_as\_pdfvvv\_aug12updated.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/vvv_aug12updated.pdf) Frankel J, Hou Y, Xie D. [Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes](/publications/estimation-nonlinear-exchange-rate-dynamics-evolving-regimes). Frankel J, Hou Y, Xie D. [Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes](/publications/estimation-nonlinear-exchange-rate-dynamics-evolving-regimes). - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ picture\_as\_pdfEstRegimeTAR-FHaoXie2022d...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/esttzone-fhxie2022dec.pdf) This paper develops a new econometric framework to classify and estimate exchange rate regimes. They are classified into four distinct categories: fixed exchange rates, BBC (band, basket and crawl), managed floating, and freely floating. The procedure... - [ picture\_as\_pdfEstRegimeTAR-FHaoXie2022d...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/esttzone-fhxie2022dec.pdf) Frankel J, Schreger J. [Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/bias-official-fiscal-forecasts-can-private-forecasts-help) NBER Working Papers. (22309). Frankel J, Schreger J. [Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/bias-official-fiscal-forecasts-can-private-forecasts-help) NBER Working Papers. (22309). - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://www.nber.org/papers/w22349) Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over... - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://www.nber.org/papers/w22349) Chinn M, Frankel J. [A Third of a Century of Currency Expectations Data:The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium](/publications/third-century-currency-expectations-datathe-carry-trade-and-risk-premium). Chinn M, Frankel J. [A Third of a Century of Currency Expectations Data:The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium](/publications/third-century-currency-expectations-datathe-carry-trade-and-risk-premium). - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ picture\_as\_pdfcf\_quartercentexpectns\_20...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/cf_quartercentexpectns_2019jan2.pdf) For four decades economists have been finding that the forward discount is a very biased forecast of future changes in the exchange rate. The carry trade makes money, on average. For just as long, they have been debating the appropriate interpretation of... - [ picture\_as\_pdfcf\_quartercentexpectns\_20...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/cf_quartercentexpectns_2019jan2.pdf) Frankel J, Ma X, Xie D. [The Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Economic Growth with Continuous Classification of de facto Regimes](/publications/impact-exchange-rate-regimes-economic-growth-continuous-classification-de-facto). Frankel J, Ma X, Xie D. [The Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Economic Growth with Continuous Classification of de facto Regimes](/publications/impact-exchange-rate-regimes-economic-growth-continuous-classification-de-facto). - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ picture\_as\_pdffmaxie\_errgr\_2019apr26.pd...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/fmaxie_errgr_2019apr26.pdf) We construct a new database characterizingthe de facto Exchange Rate Regime (ERR) for 145 countries during the full post-Bretton Woods period. With this new database, we firstly investigate the global changes of de facto ERRs over time, and then study the... - [ picture\_as\_pdffmaxie\_errgr\_2019apr26.pd...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/fmaxie_errgr_2019apr26.pdf) Frankel J, Saiki A. [Does it Matter if Statistical Agencies Frame the CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?](/publications/does-it-matter-if-statistical-agencies-frame-cpi-report-1-month-or-12-month) Frankel J, Saiki A. [Does it Matter if Statistical Agencies Frame the CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?](/publications/does-it-matter-if-statistical-agencies-frame-cpi-report-1-month-or-12-month) - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=11046&type=FN&PersonId=15) - [ picture\_as\_pdfframing\_nberwp23754.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/framing_nberwp23754.pdf) - [ picture\_as\_pdfrwp16-011\_framing\_frankel...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/rwp16-011_framing_frankelsaiki.pdf) When the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases new numbers, in theory it should make no difference whether the press release emphasizes the most recent 1-month number, which is what it does, or the 12-month number, as many other countries’ statistical... - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=11046&type=FN&PersonId=15) - [ picture\_as\_pdfframing\_nberwp23754.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/framing_nberwp23754.pdf) - [ picture\_as\_pdfrwp16-011\_framing\_frankel...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/rwp16-011_framing_frankelsaiki.pdf) ### 2024 Chinn M, Frankel J, Ito H. ["The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies"](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001104?dgcid=author). Journal of International Money and Finance. 2024;146. Chinn M, Frankel J, Ito H. ["The Dollar versus the Euro as International Reserve Currencies"](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624001104?dgcid=author). Journal of International Money and Finance. 2024;146. - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4749335) We begin by examining determinants of aggregate foreign exchange reserve holdings by central banks (size of issuing country’s economy and financial markets, ability of the currency to hold value, and inertia). But understanding the determination of... - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4749335) Frankel J. [Dollar Rivals](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31476/w31476.pdf). In: Fifty Years of Floating. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics; 2024. Frankel J. [Dollar Rivals](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31476/w31476.pdf). In: Fifty Years of Floating. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics; 2024. - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://cup.columbia.edu/book/floating-exchange-rates-at-fifty/9780881327496) - [ picture\_as\_pdfdollarrivals2023junessrn-...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/dollarrivals2023junessrn-id4474912.pdf) Written for a PIIE conference on the 50th anniversary of floating exchange rates, this paper deals with possible alternatives to a unipolar dollar-based system. It considers (1) measures of international currency use; (2) potential challengers to the... - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://cup.columbia.edu/book/floating-exchange-rates-at-fifty/9780881327496) - [ picture\_as\_pdfdollarrivals2023junessrn-...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/dollarrivals2023junessrn-id4474912.pdf) ### 2023 Frankel J. ["Is the language of rights useful for reducing poverty?"](https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/making-a-movement). In: Making a Movement: The History and Future of Human Rights. Cambridge, MA: Carr Center for Human Rights; 2023. pp. 55–56. Frankel J. ["Is the language of rights useful for reducing poverty?"](https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/making-a-movement). In: Making a Movement: The History and Future of Human Rights. Cambridge, MA: Carr Center for Human Rights; 2023. pp. 55–56. - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/making-a-movement) An economst's view on international poverty and human rights, on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the valuable Universal Declaration of Human Rights: The language of "rights" is useful for many things, but not for fighting poverty. - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/making-a-movement) ### 2021 Frankel J. [How to Set Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets for All Countries](/publications/how-set-greenhouse-gas-emission-targets-all-countries). In: Mauro BW, editor. Combatting Climate Change. London: CEPR Press, Centre for Economic Policy Research; 2021. pp. 43–48. Frankel J. [How to Set Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets for All Countries](/publications/how-set-greenhouse-gas-emission-targets-all-countries). In: Mauro BW, editor. Combatting Climate Change. London: CEPR Press, Centre for Economic Policy Research; 2021. pp. 43–48. - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://voxeu.org/content/combatting-climate-change-cepr-collection) Is a credible multilateral climate change agreement feasible? This column says that such global cooperation is necessary and attempts to address the political hurdles. The proposed emissions reduction plan develops formulas to cap atmospheric... - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://voxeu.org/content/combatting-climate-change-cepr-collection) Frankel J. [Errors of omission vs. commission in environmental policy](/publications/errors-omission-vs-commission-environmental-policy). In: Levy D, editor. Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser . 2021. Frankel J. [Errors of omission vs. commission in environmental policy](/publications/errors-omission-vs-commission-environmental-policy). In: Levy D, editor. Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser . 2021. - [ picture\_as\_pdfzeckhausermaxims\_errorsof...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/zeckhausermaxims_errorsofomissn.pdf) - [ picture\_as\_pdfzeckhausermaxims\_errorsof...](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/frankel/files/zeckhausermaxims_errorsofomissn.pdf) Frankel J. [Systematic Managed Floating](/publications/systematic-managed-floating-0). In: Yeung B, Davis S, Robinson E, editors. The Asian Monetary Policy Forum -- Insights for Central Banking. Singapore: World Scientific Publ. Co. Pte. Ltd,; 2021. pp. 160–223. Frankel J. [Systematic Managed Floating](/publications/systematic-managed-floating-0). In: Yeung B, Davis S, Robinson E, editors. The Asian Monetary Policy Forum -- Insights for Central Banking. Singapore: World Scientific Publ. Co. Pte. Ltd,; 2021. pp. 160–223. - add\_circle\_outline do\_not\_disturb\_on Abstract - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/wsiwsbook/12323.htm) A majority of countries neither freely float their currencies nor firmly peg. But most of the remainder in practice also don’t obey such well-defined intermediate exchange rate regimes as target zones. This paper proposes to define an intermediate... - [ descriptionPublisher's Version](https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/wsiwsbook/12323.htm)