#  Crises and Crashes 

 



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“[Are Leading Indicators Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability](/file_url/1406)? [Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis](/file_url/1130),” with [George Saravelos](https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/RPS_EN-PROD/Publications_reportsanalysis_and_studies_by_George_Saravelos_for_download/GEORGE_SARAVELOS.alias), [in *Journal of International Economics*](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199611001735) 87, no.2, July 2012, pp. 216-31; Online Appendix, 2012. [NBER WP 16047;](https://www.nber.org/papers/w16047) HKS RWP 11-024; [M-RCBG WP 2011-07](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/fwp/2011-07). Summary at [*VoxEU*](http://www.voxeu.org/article/early-warning-indicators-and-2008-09-crisis-new-evidence)*,* 2010.   
  
["Does Openness to Trade Make Countries Less Vulnerable to Sudden Stops? Using Gravity to Establish Causality"](/file_url/630), with [Eduardo Cavallo](https://www.iadb.org/en/research-and-data/author/eduardo-cavallo), *Journal of International Money and Finance* 27, Issue 8, Dec.2008, 1430-1452. [NBER WP No.10957](http://www.nber.org/papers/w10957); [HKS WP](/file_url/622) 2007.

"[Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries](/file_url/836) [in Developing Countries](/file_url/1169)[,](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ContractionaryCurrencyCrashesIMFSP.pdf)" [*IMF Staff Papers*, 52, no.2, 2005](https://link.springer.com/article/10.2307/30035893). *The Mundell Fleming Lecture* 2004, IMF 5th Annual Research Conference. [HKS RWP 05-017](https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=2514&type=FN&PersonId=15); [NBER WP No.11508](https://www.nber.org/papers/w11508)[.](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CCCMay26p11Ju6.pdf)   
\[Data on fate of [political leaders after devaluations](/file_url/1176) & [promises](/file_url/1174). [Yr.byYr summary](/file_url/1175).\]

“[Managing Macroeconomic Crises](/file_url/1162): [Policy Lessons](/file_url/1164),” with Shang-Jin Wei, World Bank, Washington DC. [NBER WP no. 10907](http://www.nber.org/papers/w10907). In *Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide*, edited by Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto (Cambridge Univ. Press), 2005. Paperback, 2010. [Tables & Figures](/file_url/1161). Russian translation of summary, ADB, 2009.

   ![embookdooley1.jpg](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/styles/hwp_1_1__100x100_scale/public/frankel/files/embookdooley1.jpg?itok=kE3OmjOB) 

 

   ![Cover, Edwards & Frankel book on EM crises](/sites/g/files/omnuum8121/files/styles/hwp_1_1__100x100_scale/public/frankel/files/embookedwards1_01.jpg?itok=qTem20wu) 

 

  
Edited books from [University of Chicago Press](http://www.press.uchicago.edu/) (Chicago):  
[Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets](http://papers.nber.org/books/dool03-1), with [Michael Dooley](https://people.ucsc.edu/~mpd/), 2003.  
[Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets](http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo3616871.html), with [Sebastian Edwards](http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/sebastian.edwards/), 2002.

"[Coping with Crises in Emerging Markets: Adjustment versus Financing](/file_url/1168)," in [*Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary System*](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/seminar/2001/reform/index.htm)*,* edited by Peter Kenen and Alexander Swoboda ([International Monetary Fund](http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm), Washington, D.C.), 2001. Reprinted in *Perspectives in Global Finance*, Dilip Das, ed. (Routledge, NY), 2003.

"[International Lender of Last Resort](/file_url/1170)," from *Rethinking the International Monetary System*, edited by Jane Sneddon Little and Giovanni P. Olivei, Vol. 43 (University Press of the Pacific), 1999.

"[Soros' Split Personality](/file_url/1171)," *Foreign Affairs*, [78, no. 2, 1999, 124-130](https://www.jstor.org/stable/20049213).

"[Preventing Bank Crises](/file_url/1172)," in *Preventing Bank Crises: Lessons from Recent Global Bank Failures*, edited by Gerard Caprio, William Hunter, George Kaufman, and Danny Leipziger (The World Bank), 1998, 3-11. Keynote speech, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Economic Development Institute, Lake Bluff, IL, June 1997.

"[Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199696014419)," with Andrew Rose, *Journal of International Economics* 41, no. 3/4, 351-366, 1996. [Int.Fin.Disc.Papers No.534](https://www.federalreserve.gov/Pubs/ifdp/1996/534/ifdp534.pdf), Federal Reserve Board. [NBER Working Paper no. 5437](http://www.nber.org/papers/w5437).

["Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets"](/file_url/1177), with Andrew Rose, written for the International Economics Department of the World Bank, Oct. 1995.   
  
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 See also:- [ Crises and Crashes ](/emerging-markets-terms/crises-and-crashes)