#  The Euro & European Integration 

 



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“Causes of [Eurozone Crises](/file_url/1248),” in *Causes of Eurozone crises: A consensus view,"* co-edited by Richard Baldwin & Francesco Giavazzi (CEPR: London), July 2015.  
  
“[The Euro Crisis](/file_url/1255): [Where to From Here?](/file_url/1253)” 2015, [*Journal of Policy Modeling*](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893815000344), 37, issue 3, May/June, [pp.428-444](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0161893815000344). [HKS RWP15-015.](https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=9713&type=FN&PersonId=15)

"[Over-optimistic Official Forecasts](/file_url/1257) and [Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone](/file_url/1256)," with Jesse Schreger, 2013, *Review of World Economy* [(Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) 149, no.2, pp.247-272](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10290-013-0150-9). [Online appendix](/file_url/1258), Sept.2012. [NBER WP 18283](http://www.nber.org/papers/w18283). Data on EU countries' official forecasts in Stata or csv; description. [Data set](/file_url/1259) in Stata & Excel (with "Read me").

"[Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/4/536.full?keytype=ref&ijkey=OpHpp6w9CTp9x6t)," 2011, in [*Oxford Review of Economic Polic*y](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/) [Vol. 27, Issue 4,](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/4.toc) 536-562.  NBER WP [17239](http://www.nber.org/papers/w17239); [summary in](/file_url/1260) [*NBER Diges*](https://www.nber.org/digest/nov11/over-optimism-official-budget-agencies-forecasts)*t*.   
  
“[The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade](/file_url/1244): [Why are They Below Historical Evidence](https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/europe-and-euro/estimated-trade-effects-euro-why-are-they-below-those-historical-monetary-unions-among-smaller) on[ Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?](https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11658/c11658.pdf)” in [*Europe and*](https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/europe-and-euro) [*the Euro*, edited by Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi](https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/E/bo8463090.html) (University of Chicago Press), 2009. WCFIA WP 2009-008; Dataset. NBER [WP 14542](http://www.nber.org/papers/w14542). HKS RWP08-076. Earlier version, “The estimated effects of the euro on trade,” [slides presented at 14th Dubrovnik Economic Conference](/file_url/1245), Croatia, 2008.

Comments on “The euro: It can’t happen, It’s a bad idea, It won’t last. [U.S. economists on the EMU, 1989-2002,” by Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea](https://ideas.repec.org/p/euf/ecopap/0395.html).  *Euro at 10: Reflections on American Views*, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, January 3, 2009.   
  
McKinsey Executive Roundtable Series in International Economics: The Euro at 10: State of the Union, [1-hour video, Council on Foreign Relations](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zE5RWD-hQA), May 15, 2009.

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In four pre-crisis publications, I suggested that the eurozone countries needed to get through a couple of decades without a major asymmetric shock, for trade patterns and cyclical correlations to have risen sufficiently to satisfy the OCA criteria: ​​

- *EMU & the euro*, 2000, page 11.
- *Report for Commission on the UK Outside the Euro*, 2002, p.12.
- [Submission on EMU to H M Treasury,](https://wcfia.harvard.edu/files/wcfia/files/778_04-01.pdf) 2005, pp. 99-109.
- “[Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe](https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781589063709/ch002.xml)”, 2005, p.17.

 \* \* \* \*

“Should Central European Countries Join the Euro?[ A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria](https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/harjfk/rwp08-059.html),” conference on *Common Currency and Its Future Lesson for the New Member States,* [National Bank of Poland](http://www.nbp.pl/), 2008.  *Appears in Report on Poland's Full Membership in the 3rd Stage of the Economic and Monetary Union* (Warsaw).

“[Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar](/file_url/1242),” with Menzie Chinn, 2008, [*International Finance* (Blackwill Publishers), 11, no.1, 49-73*.* ](https://users.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/Chinn_Frankel_IntFin2008.pdf)  Revised from "[The Euro May Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency over the Next 15 Years,](/file_url/1243)" RWP08-016 & [NBER WP 13909](https://www.nber.org/papers/w13909). Serbian transl.*,* [*Panoeconomicus*,](http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/) vol.[55, no.3,](http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/issue.php?id=22)[ 2008, 255-78](http://panoeconomicus.org/index.php/jorunal/article/view/251).

My comments on ["The Euro's Trade Effects," ECB WP 594, March 2006, by Richard Baldwin](http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp594.pdf). For *What Effects is EMU Having on the Euro Area and its Member Countries?"* conference at ECB, Frankfurt, June 2005.

“[Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?](/file_url/930)” with Menzie Chinn, 2007, in[ G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment](https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/g7-current-account-imbalances-sustainability-and-adjustment), edited by Richard Clarida (University of Chicago Press). NBER WP [No. 11510](http://www.nber.org/papers/w11510),[ 2005](/file_url/883). \[Data on turnover in major FX markets, 1979-2001 Excel03. ExcelWorkbook.\];////////

"[Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe](/file_url/1274): Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EM," in [*Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges*](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/2005/EURO/ENG/euroadop.pdf)*,* [edited by Susan Schadler (IMF: Washington DC)](https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781589063709/ch002.xml), 2005.

"[The UK Decision re EMU](/file_url/1275): [Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations](/file_url/1276)," in [*Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics*](http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/UKSubmissions.pdf) ([H.M. Treasury: London), 2003](https://www.amazon.com/Submissions-EMU-Leading-Academics-Study/dp/0118490052), p.99-109. [WCFIA WP 04-01](https://wcfia.harvard.edu/files/wcfia/files/778_04-01.pdf).

"[Currency Blocs](/file_url/1277) and [Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations,” ](http://wcfia.harvard.edu/publications/currency-blocs-and-market-integration-implications-trade-and-business-cycle)A background report for the *Commission on The UK Outside the Euro*, Oct.2002. \["[Leading economists urge UK to join euro](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1371736.stm)," BBC,6 June, 2001.\]

"[EMU and the Euro](/file_url/1279): [An American Perspective](/file_url/1278)," for *EMU Watch Series, DB Research,* presented at Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt, June 21, 2000; and the Lucchini Foundation, Brescia, June 22, 2000. In Italian in *Europe: What Future After the Euro?* (Laterza & Figli SpA, Rome).

"[On the Euro](/file_url/1281): [Impacts on Members and Non-Members](/file_url/1280)," and "Keynote Address," The European Conference Centre, Luxembourg, December 1998. In [*The Euro as a Stabilizer in the International Economic System*, Armand Clesse and Robert Mundell, editors](https://www.amazon.com/Euro-Stabilizer-International-Economic-System/dp/0792377559) (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell MA), 1999.

["The Endogeneity of](http://papers.nber.org/papers/W5700) [the Optimum Currency Area Criterio](https://academic.oup.com/ej/article-abstract/108/449/1009/5128584)n,["](http://papers.nber.org/papers/W5700) with Andrew Rose, 1998, [*The Economic Journal*, vol. 108, no. 449, July, 1009-1025](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-0297.00327). [NBER WP 5700](http://papers.nber.org/papers/W5700) Reprinted in *Swedish Economic Policy Review* 4, 1997, 487-512. To be reprinted also in *The Political Economy of Monetary Union*, edited by Paul DeGrauwe, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics (Edward Elgar Publ.), 2001.

“[The Integration of Secondary Equity Markets in Europe](/file_url/1290), [and the Barriers Posed by Separate Currencies](/file_url/1291),” Chapter 10 \["Exchange Rates and the Single Currency"\], in *The European Equity Markets: The State of the Union and an Agenda for the Millennium*, edited by Benn Steil (European Capital Markets Institute, Copenhagen), 1996.

“European Integration and the Regionalization of World Trade and Currencies: [The Economics and the Politics](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-79817-7_10),” with Shang-Jin Wei, 1995, in [*Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Integrated Europe*](https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-79817-7_10)*,* edited by Barry Eichengreen,Jeffry Frieden and Juergen von Hagen [(Springer-Verlag)](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-642-79817-7), pp. 202-232. [CIDER WP 95-53, UCB](/file_url/1146), 1995.

"['Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht'; Comments on Buiter, Corsetti & Roubini](/file_url/972)," [*Economic Policy*](https://www.economic-policy.org/) 16, April 1993, 92-97 (Centre for Economic Policy Research, London).

"[Financial and Currency Integration in the European Monetary System: The Statistical Record,".](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24139105_Financial_and_Currency_Integration_in_the_European_Monetary_System_The_Statistical_Record) with Steve Phillips and Menzie Chinn, UCB, 1992.

"[The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?](/file_url/1147)" with Steve Phillips, *Oxford Economic Papers*, vol. 44, 1992, 791-816.

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 See also:- [ The Euro & European integration ](/europe-terms/euro-and-emu)