#  Monetary policy & the business cycle 

 



"[Trump's Taylor Rule](/resource/trumps-taylor-rule "Trump's Taylor Rule")," Statistical analysis, with Sohaib Nasim. HKS. July 2025.

"[Did the Fed Rein in Inflation?](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-federal-reserve-deserves-credit-for-good-inflation-news-by-jeffrey-frankel-2023-11?barrier=accesspaylog), *The Guardian, Nov.20.*  "[Does the Fed Get Credit for Disinflation?](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-federal-reserve-deserves-credit-for-good-inflation-news-by-jeffrey-frankel-2023-11?barrier=accesspaylog)" *Seeking Alpha*, Nov. 2023.

"[Is the Era of Zero Interest Rates Gone for Good?](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/17/is-the-era-of-zero-interest-rates-gone-for-good)" *The Guardian,* Aug. 17, 2023.

"International Monetary Coordination," [slides](/file_url/1144), for Panel of International Monetary Coordination and Inflation Targeting, [Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=if92ApKR7yA) [recording](https://egrowfoundation.org/newsroom/webinar-held-on-global-monetary-coordination-inflation-targeting/) (JF at 36.38-56:20 + 1:18:30-1:23:00), EGROW Webinar series, part of G20 initiatives under Task Force 5/T20-6, EGROW Foundation, India, April 7, 2023.

”[Predictions that global economy is heading for a recession are premature,” ](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/29/global-economy-recession-downturn-2023) *The Guardian*, Dec. 29, 2022.  
  
["In the Dollar We Trust](/Why%20Commodity%20Prices%20are%20Likely%20to%20Fall,)," *Project Syndicat*e, September 22, 2022.  
  
"[Is the US in Recession Right Now?](/file_url/1102)," [*Barron's*](https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-us-in-recession-nber-official-definition-51654630634), June 18, 2022.

"[Get Ready for Reverse Currency Wars](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/strong-dollar-high-inflation-reverse-currency-wars-by-jeffrey-frankel-2022-05)," [*Project Syndicate*](http://www.project-syndicate.org/contributor/jeffrey-frankel)*,* May 25. [*The Globe and Mail*](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-get-ready-for-the-reverse-currency-wars/) *or* [*Korea Herald*](http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220529000024)*,* May 30.  
  
"[Fighting the Last Inflation War](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-bankers-fighting-last-inflation-war-by-jeffrey-frankel-2022-02)," [*Project Syndicate*](http://www.project-syndicate.org/contributor/jeffrey-frankel)*,* Februrary 24, 2022*.*

["Not That Seventies Inflation](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-economy-inflation-and-rapid-recovery-by-jeffrey-frankel-2021-11?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=organic-social&utm_campaign=page-posts-november21&utm_post-type=link&utm_format=16:9&utm_creative=image&utm_post-date=2021-11-26)," [*Project Syndicate*](http://www.project-syndicate.org/contributor/jeffrey-frankel)*,* Nov. 26, 2021.

“[El Salvador’s adoption of bitcoin as legal tender is pure folly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/24/el-salvador-adoption-of-bitcoin-as-legal-tender-is-pure-folly),” *The Guardian*, Sept. 24, 2021.

**"**[The Dark Heart of Gold](/www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/record-gold-price-should-not-dictate-federal-reserve-policy-by-jeffrey-frankel-2020-08)**,**" [*Project Syndicate*](https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/jeffrey-frankel)***,*** August 21, 2020. "[The Price of Gold Should Not Determine US Monetary Policy](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/24/price-of-gold-should-not-determine-us-monetary-policy)," *The* [*Guardian*](https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jeffrey-frankel), August 24, 2020.

"[The US is Officially in Recession, Thanks to the Coronavirus Crisis](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/16/us-recession-coronavirus-crisis)," *The* [*Guardian*](https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jeffrey-frankel), June 16, 2020.

“[Why do we need a Business Cycle Dating Committee?](/file_url/822)".: [Seminar on Business Cycle Dating, CIDE](/%20https://www.inegi.org.mx/eventos/2019/cide/) & [INEGI](https://www.inegi.org.mx/eventos/2019/cide/), Mexico City, Oct. 30-31, 2019.  
  
"[Central Banks Should Forget About Achieving 2% Inflation](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-central-banks-should-forget-about-achieving-2-per-cent-inflation/#comments)," [*The Globe & Mail*](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-central-banks-should-forget-about-achieving-2-per-cent-inflation/#comments), July 28, 2019.

"[No Moore Golden Era for US Monetary Policy](https://voxeu.org/article/no-moore-golden-era-us-monetary-policy)," [*VoxEU*](https://voxeu.org/users/jeffreyfrankel), May 9, 2019.  
"[Moore Problems for the Fed](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stephen-moore-interest-rates-gold-standard-by-jeffrey-frankel-2019-04)," [*Project Syndicate*](https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/jeffrey-frankel)*,,* April 27, 2019.  
  
Paper: “[Should the Fed Be Constrained?](/file_url/639)” [Background slides](/file_url/626) ([abbreviated](/file_url/636)) for panel on “Should the Fed Be Subject to a Monetary Rule?” *Monetary Policy 10 Years After the Crisis,* [36th Annual Monetary Conference](https://www.cato.org/events/36th-annual-monetary-conference), Cato Institute, November 15, 2018. ([Video of panel](https://www.facebook.com/CatoInstitute/videos/1002114289912822/?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARBHFgirWeAqXtnWuqrG3oDLSLZOLYXvksfvBYoLadv0gaZj0HbT2yGaLwR3Vl4LChZ2N4LSrn5X11hCvWo27TeX9HeYVqje4G6cK6vq3ee3VbiIwSye_tA3O-EeDqc_s9dQQnRTGuIvnEszuWGDZKPylHisL9z8I50oxH-f0_o4rbhCfPgntx6GuPtAwhgpSiSXwxu8A_JDrTQWfuofr_Yq_VZM6r0KvHSb36YYwZ42vLDb976GhEC4ROlrsrUSsCrOdvtGB5p1Hlz9E1Bb43GIIq6WFKemsZveYsBIZ2zFMxAHYaqrr46kyX2BlRJ1o2sUC8LE0rVq9k6Ql_L1OUl-kzQ&__tn__=-R), esp. on NGDPT from the 22:40-minute mark to 26.)  
  
“The Case for (and Drawbacks of) Nominal GDP Targets**,**” [detailed outline](/file_url/499); [Ppt Slides](/file_url/500). Prepared for conference [*Should the Fed stick with the 2 percent inflation target or rethink it?*](https://www.brookings.edu/events/should-the-fed-stick-with-the-2-percent-inflation-target-or-rethink-it/)*,* Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Brookings Institution, January 8, 2018.  
  
"[The Next Fed Chair](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/27/the-fed-shortlist-who-will-hold-the-second-most-important-job-in-the-us)," [*The Guardian*](https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jeffrey-frankel), Oct. 27, 2017.   
  
"[Demonetization on Five Continents](http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20161225000257)," *Korea Herald*. Dec.26, 2016.  
  
“[Lower Interest Rates are Not the Demon of Populist Claims](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/oct/25/lower-interest-rates-not-demon-populist-claims-inequality-government),” [*The Guardian*](https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jeffrey-frankel)*,* Oct. 25, 2016. "[The Blind Alley of Monetary Populists](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/oct/25/lower-interest-rates-not-demon-populist-claims-inequality-government)," [*Project Syndicate*](http://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/jeffrey-frankel), Oct. 25, 2016.  
  
"[Potential Output](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/BellagioG-PotentialY-Jan2016.docx)" ([PDF](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/BellagioG-PotentialY-Jan2016.pdf)), Outline of Introductory Comments, Bellagio Group, Banca d'Italia, January 2016.  
  
“[Should Central Banks Care About Exchange Rates in Addition to Inflation?](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/ZurichIMFSNBexrates.pptx)” SNB-IMF Conference on the International Monetary System, Zurich, May 13, 2014.  
  
“[Why the ECB Should Buy US Treasuries](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/DallasIntMoney2014Apr.doc),” Keynote Speech, Tower Center / Owens Memorial Foundation [Conference: The Political Economy of International Money](http://www.dallasfed.org/institute/events/2014/14intmoney.cfm),Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas, Apr.4, 2014.  
  
["Fischer, the Fed & US Growth," ](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/jeffrey-frankel-endorses-stanley-fischer-as-the-ideal-candidate-to-succeed-janet-yellin-as-vice-chair-of-the-federal-reserve-board) [*Project Syndicate*](http://www.project-syndicate.org/contributor/jeffrey-frankel)*, Dec.23, 2013.* “[Why Stanley Fischer is a Great Choice](http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/27/stanley-fischer-great-choice-federal-reserve),” *The Guardian*, Dec.27. Extended in "[Stan Fischer, The Fed, & Sub-par US Economic Growth](http://content.ksg.harvard.edu/blog/jeff_frankels_weblog/2013/12/26/stan-fischer-the-fed-and-sub-par-us-growth/)."  
  
“[Central banks can phase in nominal GDP targets without damaging the inflation anchor](http://www.voxeu.org/article/central-banks-can-phase-nominal-gdp-targets-without-damaging-inflation-anchor)?” [*VoxEU*](http://www.voxeu.org/person/jeffrey-frankel), Dec.19, 2012.   
  
"[Time for Nominal Growth Targets](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/monetary-policy-should-target-nominal-gdp-growth-by-jeffrey-frankel)," [*Project Syndicate*](http://www.project-syndicate.org/contributor/jeffrey-frankel)*, Dec.16.*  E.g. "[Is it Time for Nominal Growth Targets?](http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/dec/17/nominal-gdp-targets-bank-england)" *The Guardian*, UK, Dec.17, 2012.   
  
“[Inflation Targeting is Dead. Long Live Nominal GDP Targeting](http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/8106),” [*Vox*](http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/102), June 19, 2012. "[The Death of Inflation Targeting](http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-death-of-inflation-targeting),"[ *Project Syndicate*](http://www.project-syndicate.org/contributor/jeffrey-frankel), May 16, 2012; incl. [Korea Herald](http://view.koreaherald.com/kh/view.php?ud=20120527000222&cpv=0) 5/27/12.  
  
Commentary from U.S. ([*The Money Illusion*](http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=14394)*,* [*MacroMarketMusings*](http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2012/05/flexible-inflation-targeting-is-just.html)*,* [*EconoMonitor*](http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/05/is-inflation-targeting-really-dead/)), Brazil ([*Global Economic Symposium*](http://blog.global-economic-symposium.org/index.php/inflation-targeting-is-dead-long-live-what/)*,* [*Historinhas*](http://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/a-last-ditch-defense-of-inflation-targeting/)); India ([*Mostly Economics*](http://mostlyeconomics.wordpress.com/2012/06/26/the-death-of-inflation-targeting/))*;* South Africa *(*[*Twenty-third Floor*](http://twentythirdfloor.co.za/2012/05/17/the-death-of-inflation-targeting/)*);* Denmark*(*[*The Market Monetarist*](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/V=http:/marketmonetarist.com/2012/06/14/jeff-frankel-restates-his-support-for-ngdp-targeting/)*);* Iceland *(*[*Icelandic Economics*](http://icelandicecon.blogspot.com/2012/05/rate-of-interest-and-the-nominal.html)*)*

"[The Pot Again Calls the Kettle Red](http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2010/11/the-pot-again-calls-the-kettle-red-republicans-democrats-the-fed-and-qe2/)," *Economonitor, N*ov. 17, 2010. [The Pot Again Calls the Kettle Red: Republicans, Democrats, the Fed and QE2](https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/pot-again-calls-kettle-red-republicans-democrats-fed-and-qe2) Nov. 15, 2010.