#  The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy 

 



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"[Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/BiasFiscalForecastPrivate2014.docx)" with Jesse Schreger, revised, May 2014. [pdf, 1st draft, June 2013](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/BiasFiscalForecastPrivate2013.pdf), HKS [+ docx](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/BiasFiscalForecastPrivate2013.docx.doc).

"[Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/FiscalForecastEuroRulesROWEsubm2012.doc)," with Jesse Schreger, *Review of World Economy*, 2013, vol.149, no. 2, pp.247-272; online[ appendix](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/FiscalForecastEuroRulesOnlineAppdx.doc), Sept.2012. [NBER WP 18283](http://www.nber.org/papers/w18283), Aug. 2012. HKS[ RWP12-041](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/about/faculty-staff-directory/jeffrey-frankel).

 [“On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,”](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/GraduatnCyclVegh&Vuletin2012.pdf) with [Carlos](http://www.nber.org/people/carlos_vegh) [Végh](http://econweb.umd.edu/~vegh/) & [Guillermo](http://www.nber.org/people/guillermo_vuletin) [Vuletin](http://www.voxeu.org/person/guillermo-vuletin), *Journal of Development Economics* 100, no.1, Jan. 2013, pp.32-47. [NBER WP 17619](http://www.nber.org/papers/w17619), [Nov. 2011](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/GraduatnCyclVVF-NBERw17619.pdf). Summary: "[Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Escape from Procyclicality](http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6677)," *Vox.eu*, June 23, 2011.  
  
"[Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/4/536.full?keytype=ref&ijkey=OpHpp6w9CTp9x6t)," [Oxford Review of Economic Policy](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/) [Vol.27, Issue 4,](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/4.toc) 2011, 536-562. [July 2011 draft](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/BudgetForecastOxfordREP2011.doc). NBER WP[ 17239](http://www.nber.org/papers/w17239); [Summary](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/OveroptNBERdigestNov2011WP17239.doc) in [*NBER Digest*](http://www.nber.org/digest/nov11/w17239.html), Nov.2011. \[Featured in “[Excessive Optimism in Official Budget Forecasts](http://mercatus.org/publication/excessive-optimism-official-budget-forecasts),” Mercatus Center, Oct.2011.\]

“[A Lesson From the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/LessonForUSfiscalSouth2011CES.doc),” [*Comparative Economic Studies*](http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/index.html)*,* [53](http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v53/n3/full/ces20117a.html), [no.3](http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v53/n3/index.html), [Sept. 2011](http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ces/journal/v53/n3/index.html#ar),407-430. [Reprinted](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/LessonForUSfiscalSouth%20reprnt.doc) in *Changing Lenses: Global Perspectives to Re-Develop America*, edited by Joe Colombano & Aniket Shah (Palgrave Macmillan), 2013:26-50.   HKS [RWP11-014](http://web.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=7646); "[Looking to Chile for Fiscal Sanity](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/frankel-wp-chile-fiscal-policy)" 2011. [Short version](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/LessonsForUSfiscalfromEMsWBk2000wds.doc), [slides](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/LessonsEMs-USBD-NYU2010.ppt), India Planning Commission Workshop on *Restoring Inclusive Growth,* NYU, 2010.   
  
[“Snake-Oil Tax Cuts,](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/TaxCutSnakeOilSept16-08.pdf)”  [Economic Policy Institute](http://www.epi.org/), [Briefing Paper 221](http://www.epi.org/briefingpapers/221/bp221.pdf). [Presented ](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/Snake-Oil%20TaxCutsC.pdf)at panel on [*The Economics, History, and Public Debate of Supply-Side Policies*](http://www.americanprogress.org/events/2008/09/supply.html) at Center for American Progress, Washington, DC, Sept.12, 2008. [HKS RWP 08-056](http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/research/wpaper.NSF/RWP/RWP08-056)

["Responding to Crises," ](http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/CatoRespCrisesJun07%20fn15&2.pdf) *Cato Journal* vol. 27, no. 2, Spring/Summer, 2007. *Federal Reserve Policy in the Face of Crises*, 24th Annual Monetary Conference, [Cato Institute](http://www.cato.org/podcasts/), Nov. 2006. [slides.](http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~jfrankel/CatoInstCrisesSlides.pdf) [KSG RWP07-010.](http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/Research/wpaper.nsf/rwp/RWP07-010)

["Could the Twin Deficits Jeopardize US Hegemony?" ](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/SalvatoreDeficitsHegemonJan26Jul%20.pdf) in [*Twin Deficits, Growth and Stability of the US Economy*](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V82-4KPGNS8-9/2/64e1c479afb475d839c7e278619c9a0a)*,* [Special Issue](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/JPMtwindeficitContentsJun06.pdf) ofJournal of Policy Modeling, edited by Dominick Salvatore, 28, no.6, Sept. 2006, pp. 653-663.

["The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership"](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/FlubJ23M2004-.pdf). Published as ["Bush's Spectacular Failure"](http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:UX4S4SrhpoQJ:www.international-economy.com/TIE_SP04_Frankel.pdf%20jeffrey%20frankel&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=89&gl=us) \[not my choice of title!\] in *The International Economy,* XVIII, no. 2, Spring 2004.

["What Can an Economic Adviser Do When He Disagrees with the President?"](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/AdviceChallengeAprnobdbias.pdf), *Challenge*, 46, no. 3., May/June 2003, pp. 1-24.

[“Republican and Democratic Presidents Have Switched Economic Policies,”](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/RepubDemoSwitchMIR-rSS.pdf) [*Milken Institute Review*](http://www.milkeninstitute.org/)[.](http://www.milkeninstitute.org/?point=review) vol. 5, no. 1,1st Quarter, 2003, pp. 18-25.



 



 

 See also:- [ The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy ](/fiscal-policy-terms/political-economy-fiscal-policy)