#  Publications on Fiscal Policy 

 



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"[Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?](/file_url/680)" with Jesse [Schreger](https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/cbs-directory/detail/jms2476). Revised: [NBER WP 22349](/www.nber.org/papers/w22349), June 2016; HKS Faculty [Research Working Paper Series RWP16-021](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/bias-official-fiscal-forecasts-can-private-forecasts-help), [pdf](https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id=1375), May 2016. "Fiscal Procyclicality and Over-optimism in Official Forecasts," [Ppt](/file_url/310) or [PDF](/file_url/311), National University of Singapore, May 22, 2017. "[Policy pro-cyclicalit](/file_url/813)[y](/file_url/808)," [Ppt](/file_url/807); Macro Policy Seminar, Harvard Econ.Dept., Dec.3, 2019. [Summary](/file_url/806).

"Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules," with Jesse [Schreger](https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/cbs-directory/detail/jms2476), *Review of World Economy*, 2013, vol.149, no. 2, pp.247-272; [NBER WP 18283](http://www.nber.org/papers/w18283), 2012; [HKS RWP12-041](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/over-optimistic-official-forecasts-eurozone-and-fiscal-rules). Data on official forecasts: in [Excel](/file_url/612),with [intro note](/file_url/613).

[ “On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387812000533)" with [Carlos](http://www.nber.org/people/carlos_vegh) Végh & [Guillermo](http://www.nber.org/people/guillermo_vuletin) Vuletin, *Journal of Development Economics* 100, no.1, Jan. 2013, pp.32-47. [NBER WP 17619](http://www.nber.org/papers/w17619), [Nov. 2011](http://hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/GraduatnCyclVVF-NBERw17619.pdf). Summary: "[Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Escape from Procyclicality](https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/fiscal-policy-developing-countries-escape-procyclicality)," *Vox.eu*, June 23, 2011.

“[A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality](/file_url/1262): [The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile](/file_url/461),” 2013, in [*Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance*](https://repositoriodigital.bcentral.cl/xmlui/handle/20.500.12580/1638)[*,*](http://www.bcentral.cl/eng/studies/central-banking/v17.htm) edited by Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí, Series on Central Banking Analysis, and Economic Policies, vol.17, pp.323-391. [HKS RWP 11-012](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/solution-overoptimistic-forecasts-and-fiscal-procyclicality-structural-budget). //  
  
"[Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/4/536.full?keytype=ref&ijkey=OpHpp6w9CTp9x6t)," [*Oxford Review of Economic Polic*y](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/) [Vol.27, Issue 4,](http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/27/4.toc) 2011, [536-562](https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/27/4/536/417190?redirectedFrom=fulltext). NBER WP[ 17239](http://www.nber.org/papers/w17239); [Summary](/file_url/1261) in [*NBER Digest*](http://www.nber.org/digest/nov11/w17239.html), Nov.2011. \[Featured in “[Excessive Optimism in Official Budget Forecasts](http://mercatus.org/publication/excessive-optimism-official-budget-forecasts),” Mercatus Center, Oct.2011.\]

“[A Lesson From the South for](/file_url/1265) [Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries](/file_url/1263),” *Comparative Economic Studies,* 53, no.3, Sept. 2011, 407-430. [R](https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/LessonForUSfiscalSouth%20reprnt.doc)eprinted in *Changing Lenses: Global Perspectives to Re-Develop America*, edited by Joe Colombano & Aniket Shah (Palgrave Macmillan), 2013: 26-50.   HKS [RWP11-014;](https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=7646&type=FN&PersonId=15) "Looking to Chile for Fiscal Sanity" 2011.   
  
“[Snake-Oil Tax Cuts](https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/snake-oil-tax-cuts),”  Economic Policy Institute, [Briefing Paper 221.](/file_url/1264) Presented at panel on *The Economics, History, and Public Debate of Supply-Side Policies* at Center for American Progress, Washington, DC, Sept.12, 2008. [HKS RWP 08-056](https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=5975&type=FN&PersonId=15).

### More Topics 

[The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy](https://prod-frankel.drupalsites.harvard.edu/political-economy-fiscal-policy)



 



 

 See also:- [ Fiscal Policy ](/publication-topics-new/fiscal-policy)