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Dates of recessions , starts & ends. Announcements . BCDC members . FAQs " Who needs a Committee? Isn’t a recession simply two quarters of negative growth?" Macroeconomic Policly Seminar, Harvard Economics Dept., Feb..14, 2023. "The July 28 announcement...

BCDC meeting, April 8, 2010 Business Cycle Dating Committee members Chronology of recession dates "Announcement of June 2009 Business Cycle Trough / End of Last Recession" Sept.20, 2010. " No Trough Announced," April 12, 2010. " Determination of the...

"Announcement of June 2009 Business Cycle Trough / End of Last Recession" Sept.20, 2010. "No Trough Announced," April 12, 2010. Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity, Dec. 1, 2008 NBER's Recession Dating Procedures Jan. 7, 2008...

" Trump's Taylor Rule ," Statistical analysis, with Sohaib Nasim. HKS. July 2025. " Did the Fed Rein in Inflation?, The Guardian, Nov.20. " Does the Fed Get Credit for Disinflation?" Seeking Alpha, Nov. 2023. " Is the Era of Zero Interest Rates Gone for...

Double Dip watch, 2011: " Recession Gatekeepers: How a Economic Downturn is Determined," ABC News, Sept. 26, 2011. " Odds of U.S. Recession Seen Rising by Academic Panel Majority," Bloomberg, Aug 3, 2011. Recovery watch, 2010: " The Recession is Over,"...

" Americans Can't Afford Trump's Economy," Project Syndicate, May 28, 2026. "How to Forecast a Recession," Project Syndicate, April 21, 2025; The Guardian, April 24. " A Retrospective on Trump's First Year Back," Project Syndicate, Jan. 8. Bangkok Post...

Double Dip watch, 2011: " Recession Gatekeepers: How a Economic Downturn is Determined," ABC News, Sept. 26, 2011. " Odds of U.S. Recession Seen Rising by Academic Panel Majority," Bloomberg, Aug 3, 2011. Recovery watch, 2010: " The Recession is Over,"...

Video Appearances - 2000-2025 - White House, 1997-98 - (on C-Span). - The Economics of Everything - Son, Evan, interviewing me in a series of 1-min. clips. starting Nov. 2025. On Trump 2: " US Labor Slowdown Hits Tax Base for Debt," Chosun Daily, Jan 8...