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Commodity Prices: Macro Determinants

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"Macroeconomic determinants of commodity prices." Ppt slides ( pdf), National Minerals Information Center Seminar Series, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA, August 23, 2018 "Macroeconomic determinants of international commodity prices," Ppt slides ( pdf)...

Determination of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices

Book Chapter

The Effects of Interest Rates on Commodity Prices

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" Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a “Carry Trade” Model of Commodity Prices, " 2014, Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.42, pp. 88-112 . HKS RWP13-022; NBER WP 19463 . Stata fies (data, do & log), thanks to Marco Martinez, June...

Commodities

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Recent: Discussion of “Unveiling the Dance of Commodity Prices and the Global Financial Cycle,” by Luciana Juvenal and Ivan Petrella, 46 th ISoM, EC JRC, Ispra, Italy, June 22, 2023. “The Resource Curse” slides. ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic...

Monetary Influences on Commodity Prices

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The central claim: Real interest rates are an important influence on real prices of oil, minerals, and agricultural commodities. The argument is summarized briefly in: And in "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices," Monetary Policy Review...

Publications on Commodities

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“ The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket: A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically​” Short abstract. In: Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies , edited by K. Mohaddes...

Environmental and Energy Economics

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“ The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions,” in Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries , 2012, edited by Rabah Arezki, Catherine Patillo, Marc Quintyn & Min Zhu (International Monetary Fund...

API-120: Advanced Macroeconomics for the Open Economy I

Teaching

Focuses on the international dimension of macroeconomic policy, particularly monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policy, and on the determination of the current account balance, national income, and inflation. Special attention is given to developing...

On The Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate

Journal Article

This paper is an econometric investigation of the determinants of the real value of the South
African rand over the period 1984-2007. The results show a relatively good fit. As always with
exchange rate equations, there is substantial weight on the lagged...

Exchange Rate Policies for Emerging Markets

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" Systematic Managed Floating," 2019, Open Economies Review , April, vol 30, no.2 pp.255-295. Reprinted, 2021, in The Asian Monetary Policy Forum -- Insights for Central Banking (Singapore: World Scientific Publ. Co. Pte. Ltd,), edited by S,Davis. E...

Exchange Rate Policies for Emerging Markets

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“Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes,” with Yao Hou and Danxia Xie, June 2024. " Systematic Managed Floating," 2019, Open Economies Review, April, vol 30, no.2 pp.255-295. Draft 2019. Reprinted, 2021, in The Asian Monetary...

Jeffrey Frankel

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Jeffrey Frankel is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University's Kennedy School. He is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He served at the US President's Council of Economic Advisers in...