Publications on Fiscal Policy
"Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?" with Jesse Schreger. Revised: NBER WP 22349, June 2016; HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP16-021, pdf, May 2016. "Fiscal Procyclicality and Over-optimism in Official Forecasts," Ppt or PDF, National University of Singapore, May 22, 2017. "Policy pro-cyclicality," Ppt; Macro Policy Seminar, Harvard Econ.Dept., Dec.3, 2019. Summary.
"Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules," with Jesse Schreger, Review of World Economy, 2013, vol.149, no. 2, pp.247-272; NBER WP 18283, 2012; HKS RWP12-041. Data on official forecasts: in Excel,with intro note.
“On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," with Carlos Végh & Guillermo Vuletin, Journal of Development Economics 100, no.1, Jan. 2013, pp.32-47. NBER WP 17619, Nov. 2011. Summary: "Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Escape from Procyclicality," Vox.eu, June 23, 2011.
“A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,” 2013, in Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edited by Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí, Series on Central Banking Analysis, and Economic Policies, vol.17, pp.323-391. HKS RWP 11-012. //
"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol.27, Issue 4, 2011, 536-562. NBER WP 17239; Summary in NBER Digest, Nov.2011. [Featured in “Excessive Optimism in Official Budget Forecasts,” Mercatus Center, Oct.2011.]
“A Lesson From the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries,” Comparative Economic Studies, 53, no.3, Sept. 2011, 407-430. Reprinted in Changing Lenses: Global Perspectives to Re-Develop America, edited by Joe Colombano & Aniket Shah (Palgrave Macmillan), 2013: 26-50. HKS RWP11-014; "Looking to Chile for Fiscal Sanity" 2011.
“Snake-Oil Tax Cuts,” Economic Policy Institute, Briefing Paper 221. Presented at panel on The Economics, History, and Public Debate of Supply-Side Policies at Center for American Progress, Washington, DC, Sept.12, 2008. HKS RWP 08-056.