Publications on Monetary Policy
"Trump's Taylor Rule," Statistical analysis, with Sohaib Nasim. HKS. July 2025.
“Should the Fed Be Constrained?” Cato Journal, 39, no.2, Spring/summer, 2019. Proofs. Abstract. HKS RWP 19-003, Dec. 2018.
Frankel J, and Saiki A. "Does it Matter if Statistical Agencies Frame the CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?" NBER WP 23754, Aug. 2017. 2017; Publisher's Version Abstract Framing Stat Releases2016.pdf HKS RWP16-011. On-line appendix documenting Table 1.
“Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries,” [word] with Pranjul Bhandari, 2017, Research in Economics (Elsevier), vol.71, issue 3, September, pp. 491-506. Uncorrected page proofs. NBER WP 20898.
"Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a “Carry Trade” Model of Commodity Prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.42, April 2014, pp. 88-112. HKS RWP13-022. HKS Summary. NBER WP 19463. Stata (data, do & log) files thanks to Marco Martinez, June 2013 (excl. proprietary Consensus Economics data). Video of session on forecasting commodity prices, paper presented at Understanding International Commodity Price Fluctuations (IMF Research Dept., 2013)
"Nominal GDP Targeting for Middle-Income Countries," Central Bank Review, vol.14, no.3, September 2014 (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), pp.1-14. HKS RWP 14-033.
Summaries: "Emerging Market Target Practice," Project Syndicate; "Developing Countries Should Target Nominal GDP," The Guardian, June 24, 2014.
Extended summary: "Nominal GDP Targeting for Developing Countries," VoxEU, Aug.21, 2014.
"Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Countries” (pdf), 2011, Handbook of Monetary Economics, edited by Benjamin Friedman & Michael Woodford. NBER WP 16125..
“A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," Economia, vol.11 (Brookings Institution), 2011. NBER WP 16362.
More Topics
Monetary Influences on Commodity Prices